There May be More than Fireworks Going off in Palo Alto!

Hewlett-Packard, symbol (HPQ) has been struggling of late, at least when you are watching the price action of the chart this year. The maker of personal computers, printers, enterprise networks and storage, as well as software has had a rough start with shares down some 20% plus year to date.

Before you start talking “Value” or “Buy Low”, take a look at a chart that shows a different view!

HPQ 7 1 15


$HPQ has formed what looks to be a bearish Head & Shoulder top. The Neckline has been broken and we are now witnessing a move back up in price to the neckline (often the case in this pattern), before a resumption in the downtrend.

We are keeping  an eye here to see if the neckline will now become resistance and if so, would look to the low 20’s as a reasonable price objective. BTW, the Point & Figure vertical count suggests the same price objective area.

A move above the neckline would change our idea from a technical perspective and dictate this pattern as a failed pattern.

Good Luck and Happy Independence Day!




Time for a Quick Dive?

After taking a dive, the S&P 500 pulled back to the 200 day simple moving average yesterday and held, which happened to coincide with some Fibonacci support.

Meanwhile, today we saw some evidence of a possible bullish short term reversal!

SPX 6 30 15a


An Inside Day took place, and in Candlestick  terms it’s known as a bullish Harami pattern. Worth a shot on the long side to us with a stop below today’s low (use the stop at your own discretion).

Thanks for hanging out, let’s see what tomorrow brings,



Nasdaq Whaz Up?

OK, so here we are 15 years later.

The old Nasdaq Composite high was 5132 and while we did manage to take it out on the upside, we have not made much progress since then; matter of fact, we are back down below for now. That is a long time to get back to break even, despite some of the names, having changed or disappeared altogether.

Posted this chart back in April of this year, to share a visual of this round trip to the old highs!

nasdaq 425_15


I remember the 5132 highs 15 years ago, the chart remains in play for some resolution.


The Relative Strength of Relative Strength!

This unique exchange traded fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the index called the Dorsey Wright Focus Five Index, symbol (FV).

The Dorsey Wright Focus Five Index is designed to provide targeted exposure to the five First Trust sector and industry based ETFs that DWA believes offer the greatest potential to outperform the other ETFs in the selection universe. To construct the index, Dorsey, Wright & Associates (DWA) begins with the universe of First Trust sector and industry ETFs. Using the DWA relative strength ranking system, the ETFs are compared to each other to determine inclusion by measuring each ETF’s price momentum relative to other ETFs in the universe!

Think of this as an ETF that contains the top five relative strength places to be, inside one ETF using the First Trust ETF products.

This chart shows an interesting development. After making a bullish head& shoulder continuation pattern, it has returned to the neckline to test what may be support! Looks like good risk/reward here!

FV 6 27 15 (1)


Now take a look at Relative Strength of Relative Strength vs. the S&P 500.

FV vs SPX 6 27 15


Focus 5 continues to outperform here!

Hope everyone enjoyed their weekend and thanks for stopping by,


Green Aching is the place to be!

Green Acres is the place to be. Farm living is the life for me. Land spreadin’ out so far and wide. keep Manhattan just give me that massive slide!

The Spill of this coffee provider was brought to you by the Head & Shoulder top mentioned back in early May, and the updated May 20 (this H&S not affiliated with Proctor & Gamble).

Here Is the Point & Figure chart with the first Vertical downside target as of last updated chart.

GMCR PnF 6 25 15

It’s a Mountain alright! Looking for 73 here as first objective.

Here is the H&S target and and past charts which suggest closer to 60 longer term!

GMCE Update 6 25 15

GMCR 6 29 15b


These targets are projections based on technical analysis to identify possible objectives, use your stops if they go against you.

Appreciate your time.



You don’t need a Cold Call to know What the Brokers are Doing!

The US 10 Year Interest Rate rose over 2% today, helping to keep the tailwind behind companies that benefit from higher rates. Morgan Stanley, Charles Schwab, E*Trade Financial and Raymond James Financial managed to clock 52-week highs!

The State Street Global Advisors SPDR Exchange Traded Fund, symbol $KCE focuses on the Capital Markets such as companies that do business as broker dealers, asset managers, trust and custody banks, as well as exchanges.

Now the good stuff from a chart perspective. The price chart is breaking out of a basing pattern which some may view as a bullish Head and Shoulder continuation pattern!
KCE 6 23 15

We like to look at a sector and compare how it’s price, when compared to another asset class such as the S&P 500, is performing. Notice the smaller chart is also showing a bullish Head & Shoulder pattern which demonstrates the Brokers have the upper hand here and should outperform in the weeks / months ahead.

Thanks for coming by!


Building on Higher Interest Rates?

The Ten year Treasury has risen from 1.6% or so from the early February Lows to a current rate of approximately 2.6%. Not a big move unless you think in terms of percentage rise, which by the way is about a 62% gain!

So God forbid you want to own the Home Builder Sector right? I mean it would not be intuitive to most, to hang around new construction as Financing costs increase!

Well guess what? ( and I’m rounding here) The Philadelphia Housing Sector Index ($HGX) is up over 10.5 % over the same time frame.

Lets check out the charts:

HGX 6 22 15


Trend line breakout today, with relative strength vs. the S&P 500 holding support and bouncing!

Keep both your eyes on these charts,


It’s all Relative when you’re Small!

Small Caps have been acting relatively well when compared to the Larger more established company’s since last fall. Signs that allocating between Value vs. Growth is leaning to Growth. Growth includes sectors like Technology, Biotech, and Consumer Discretionary.

For example, a hot sector this year starting in December has been the cyber security sector. Since our FireEye ($FEYE) post in January it has gone up over 57%!!!


And this year, it’s been the Small Cap Growth portion of this asset class that is showing greater relative strength than it’s brother Small Cap Value! Remember Value is employed to allow investors more protection in sell-off’s, while Growth leads and performs in market rallies.

Today, we watched the iShares Small Cap Growth ETF symbol (IJT), breakout to new all-time highs clearing the neckline of a bullish Head & Shoulder continuation pattern.IJT 6 16 15 In addition, a relative price breakout took place as well when compared to the S&P 500!

Investors / traders should look to overweight this Asset Class, look for individual names in the Small Cap space or continue to be long Small Cap against shorting Large Caps.

Thank You to all our subscribers! More good things to come in the following months.




Another Way to Get Cash Value out of these Policies?

The iShares U.S. Insurance ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S. equities in the insurance sector, companies that provide life, property and casualty, and full line insurance.

Looks like this gang wants to join other groups that have started to benefit from higher interest rates!

Now to the charts, $IAK has bullishly broken out on a Relative (vs.& S&P 500) and Absolute basis.


Love it when we get we get both breakouts in Sync.

Thanks for stopping by!

Captain John